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MakeUSAProgressiveAgain

The New Economy and Markets Thread 2016

18,022 posts in this topic

Boeing is up 11.61 in early trading, despite word of its multi-billion dollar write down due to the 737 MAX.

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2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Economic cycles cannot be stopped.  You can forestall and extend, but that will make the reversion much worse.  We have tried our best to remove all of the pain forever.  You can't.  And it's coming.

I’m not saying it’s not coming. It just isn’t happening until at least the end of 2020. If Trump remains it will be extended. The internal market is still to healthy. 

52 minutes ago, PB says what's up losers said:

California is broke 

Lol

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The fact he cannot fathom a recession tells me how naive he really is. Or more likely, that he's mostly just a troll who lies about his financial acumen and accomplishments.

 

I guess we wait to see who is right. I have done nothing to you Will to deserve these accusations, but have at it. Call me when the recession happens. 

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Just now, Captain Planet said:

I’m not saying it’s not coming. It just isn’t happening until at least the end of 2020. If Trump remains it will be extended. The internal market is still to healthy. 

Lol

I guess we wait to see who is right. I have done nothing to you Will to deserve these accusations, but have at it. Call me when the recession happens. 

The recession could def wait until after 2020...but you were saying how you don't see any possibility in the next 3-4 years.

I'm not really accusing you of much outside of being a troll, which you have admitted to being. I just don''t believe you have nearly the financial savvy you claim to have because you are constantly contradicting yourself on here. You keep saying how much you love small business and the need for low corporate taxes, etc, etc....and then you love dudes like Bernie Sanders.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The recession could def wait until after 2020...but you were saying how you don't see any possibility in the next 3-4 years.

I'm not really accusing you of much outside of being a troll, which you have admitted to being. I just don''t believe you have nearly the financial savvy you claim to have because you are constantly contradicting yourself on here. You keep saying how much you love small business and the need for low corporate taxes, etc, etc....and then you love dudes like Bernie Sanders.

If Trump remains president, I don’t see a recession happening within 3-4 years, if he is unelected I could see one happening towards the end of 2020. The job market and housing demand and low foreclosure rates are still to healthy for a recession. When people can’t afford their mortgages, that’s when “real” recessions start. The Sahm is still healthy and if people have jobs to pay their mortgages, there will be no “real” recession. Will I troll here all the time. I do like low corporate taxes, but I also do see some value of universal education. I may not be as financially savvy as a lot of you, but I can hold my own. 

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Just now, Captain Planet said:

If Trump remains president, I don’t see a recession happening within 3-4 years, if he is unelected I could see one happening towards the end of 2020. The job market and housing demand and low foreclosure rates are still to healthy for a recession. When people can’t afford their mortgages, that’s when “real” recessions start. The Sahm is still healthy and if people have jobs to pay their mortgages, there will be no “real” recession. Will I troll here all the time. I do like low corporate taxes, but I also do see some value of universal education. I may not be as financially savvy as a lot of you, but I can hold my own. 

The mortgages don't have to be the cause of the next recession...we've had recessions in the past where people were affording their mortgages just fine. It just happens the last crisis was because we had a bunch of bad mortgages out there that Wall Street decided to leverage up to obscene levels.

So yeah, the next recession won't happen in the same manner. They usually don't. They happen with something else that people aren't really paying attention to and they happen with little warning too....for the most part. Obviously 2008 was seen by some smart folks, but even they weren't sure on the timing. They just knew the shit would hit the fan eventually. Michael Burry was like 3-4 years early on it.

 

The next recession might be caused by something like corporate debt...zombies being kept "alive" by cheap debt and asset prices inflated keeping the money flowing in. When the FED-induced asset bubble finally pops, we'll see a wipeout of sorts amongst the zombies and maybe even some non-zombies who are weak. This will cause job losses and limit consumption. And yeah, some people won't be able to pay mortgages, but it won't be like 2008. Most recessions way milder than 2008. The huge threat of a 2008-esque bomb or bigger is sovereign debt overseas....there is some really bad stuff in Europe. That threatens to bring the global economy into Armageddon. If we see the chain-reaction of banking defaults start overseas, then we could be in trouble.

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I sold out of all my long term positions last week and am only holding speculative biotechs right now that need a year or 2 for maturation.

I pulled out my entire long position in September as well, btw. Re-bought in February.

I think we are near the short term top again and any negative story could cause a mini correction.

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The mortgages don't have to be the cause of the next recession...we've had recessions in the past where people were affording their mortgages just fine. It just happens the last crisis was because we had a bunch of bad mortgages out there that Wall Street decided to leverage up to obscene levels.

So yeah, the next recession won't happen in the same manner. They usually don't. They happen with something else that people aren't really paying attention to and they happen with little warning too....for the most part. Obviously 2008 was seen by some smart folks, but even they weren't sure on the timing. They just knew the shit would hit the fan eventually. Michael Burry was like 3-4 years early on it.

 

The next recession might be caused by something like corporate debt...zombies being kept "alive" by cheap debt and asset prices inflated keeping the money flowing in. When the FED-induced asset bubble finally pops, we'll see a wipeout of sorts amongst the zombies and maybe even some non-zombies who are weak. This will cause job losses and limit consumption. And yeah, some people won't be able to pay mortgages, but it won't be like 2008. Most recessions way milder than 2008. The huge threat of a 2008-esque bomb or bigger is sovereign debt overseas....there is some really bad stuff in Europe. That threatens to bring the global economy into Armageddon. If we see the chain-reaction of banking defaults start overseas, then we could be in trouble.

I don’t see a “dot-com” styled bubble or “zombie” companies being that big of a problem. They will just die out slowly enough to not send shockwaves across the entire market, especially if FED rates are cut. This may pump the bubble, but I don’t think it pops within the next few years. People still have jobs to pay their personal debt, so I just don’t think it would be a “real” recession. Overseas economic problems could be an issue, but I’m not concerned at the moment. 

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Just now, Rent Free said:

Damn Iran killing the house today. 

I hate iran.


I bought a bunch of oil calls at the close.

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A Sweeping victory for the unders today.  What a way to start a weekend! :)

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Boeing is about 11% of the DJIA it was up 16.25 pts and it could not save the day.

CAT +2.37

But offsetting those are Amex -3.58 Travelers -2.48 Unitedhealth -3.95 Apple -3.07 McD -2.04

 

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Just now, FREE to LEAVE said:

I hate iran.


I bought a bunch of oil calls at the close.

Oil is dead money in 10 years. 

Just wait until the price of oil is much lower than the price of extraction. Big oil will be in it's death throes soon. 

Edited by Captain Planet

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Just now, Captain Planet said:

Oil is dead money in 10 years. 

Okay Ivan

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Just now, FREE to LEAVE said:

Okay Ivan

Keep telling yourself that. Oil is 100% a terrible long term investment now. I would only buy oil short term if there is a hot conflict with Iran. Onces EVs saturate the global market at around 15%, oil is screwed. The first to feel the suffering will be shale oil producers, they will go bk. 

If a conflict in the middle east happens, oil will skyrocket and EV demand will skyorcket due to much higher gas prices. 

Saudi Arabia will be the last country standing (oil power) with their cheap oil production. They also have massive amounts of solar energy resource. They are well positioned in the energy market.

Edited by Captain Planet

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Just now, Captain Planet said:

Keep telling yourself that. Oil is 100% a terrible long term investment now. I would only buy oil short term if there is a hot conflict with Iran. Onces EVs saturate the global market at around 15%, oil is screwed. The first to feel the suffering will be shale oil producers, they will go bk. 

If a conflict in the middle east happens, oil will skyrocket and EV demand will skyorcket due to much higher gas prices. 

Saudi Arabia will be the last country standing (oil power) with their cheap oil production. They also have massive amounts of solar energy resource. They are well positioned in the energy market.

Okay Ivan

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

I'm guessing User didn't buy 10 year calls.

That wasn’t my point. I don’t blame user for buying oil short term. But oil is dead money long term. 

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Just now, Captain Planet said:

That wasn’t my point. I don’t blame user for buying oil short term. But oil is dead money long term. 

Money is dead money long term.

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57 minutes ago, Captain Planet said:

gold in the street? 

Bitcoin is where it’s at. 

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Bought some ETH and picked up a few small calls on GPRO.  Doesn’t look great but have a feeling it’s way oversold. And earning on 8/1 may end up good.   

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