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About jbenedet

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    Advanced Member
  1. Different history; different philosophy.
  2. @Rain Cold http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/grandmaster-putins-golden-trap
  3. lol @ anyone who thinks China will just sit back and watch its industry/jobs flood back into US... Trade-war "de-escalation" . Likely going to be a lot more of this going forward... https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/30/china-cuts-tax-rates-for-chipmakers.html
  4. Leaving Syria marks a transition to face-off with Iran. Pompeo agrees w/ Trump on nuclear deal. Timing seems right w/ nuclear agreement deadline on May 12. Can’t get a pipeline or road (silk) from the east through Syria w/o first passing through Iran. $700 bill WAR budget.
  5. Yikes. That's bad; really frickin bad... They're going to get beat up real good on this one, and I'm now leaning that they won't be able to come back from this, except perhaps as MUCH smaller company.
  6. Still? We're at 2.97% on 30 yr down from 3.22%. Inflation isn't slowing. What gives?
  7. Inflation numbers are running hot - PCE deflator at 2.3%, (highest in 7 years) and the three month trend has shot up to 2.8%, which hasn't been seen since November 2007.
  8. Not good signs coming out of bond market. More flattening... 30 year comfortably under 3% now.
  9. Look at the yield curve... Bond market is sensing a big slowdown in growth.
  10. The PR crisis is one thing, but these revelations regarding FB and potentially TWTR are more damaging to the companies in that, this illegitimate collection of data was a major source of revenue for these companies, and that's going away or at least going to be MUCH smaller going forward...
  11. Yup AWT.
  12. Markets are increasingly shifting to a BoP type narrative. In this case CNY>EUR>JPY>GBP>USD. The 87 narrative is particularly interesting here bc such a shift would be severely deflationary for EU and Japan and they don't have the gold option or domestic consumer as in the case of China to manage this transition. Basically they're trapped if this transition is occurring. Could it result in a new downturn of the debt crisis in these areas?
  13. Fed funds rate just surpassed core pce for first time since April 2008. Positive short term real rates = real tightening has just begun.
  14. The volume numbers on the indexes today are pretty telling though. The Dow was actually above average while SP and Nasdaq were close to 65% of average. Industrials had signficant strength today and that makes sense given recent rallies in commodities.
  15. Yea def not talking beyond a month or two here. I can see both the bull and bear case after that...Not worth forecasting for US equities beyond that point bc there are clearly seismic shifts already underway, and not possible to see how this will all pan out.